There
are many pressing concerns regarding Korea and nuclear weapons that need to be
addressed and contextualized. While many people have been critical of Trump’s
summit meeting with Kim, few seem to have satisfying answers to the conundrum
of “denuclearization.” What exactly does that mean? How would it be
accomplished?
For
starters, Peaceworks opposes nuclear weapons and would like to see them
abolished, mutually, verifiably and universally. The question is how we get
from here to there.
Please
consider that our government and those of other nuclear armed states are
universally opposed to nuclear proliferation—that is the spread of nukes to
currently non-nuclear states—but have been consistently and steadfastly opposed
to giving up their own nuclear capabilities. When the so-called “Ban Treaty,”
which would outlaw all nuclear weapons came before the United Nations last
summer, 123 nations supported it (out of 178), but not one of the nine nuclear-armed
states got on board with a yes vote.
It
is also worthy of note that the United States is legally bound by the
Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 1968 and ratified in 1970. Ratified
treaties are, under the U.S. Constitution, deemed “the highest law of the
land,” but our government consistently ignores Article VI which reads:
“Each
of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on
effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early
date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete
disarmament under strict and effective international control.”
The
U.S., however, has not taken the Treaty seriously, except to use it to pressure
non-nuclear states. In fact, through its periodic Nuclear Posture Reviews, the
U.S. has made clear its intention to maintain a nuclear arsenal in perpetuity. And
our government has adopted a $1.2 trillion plan to “modernize” their nuclear weapons
capabilities. These actions are fueling a new arms race with Russia and China.
This is very costly, dangerous and completely unnecessary.
And
this “do as I say, not as I do” double standard creates an incentive for
non-nuclear states to “go nuclear” and obtain a deterrent to discourage
aggression along the lines we saw when the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003 or when
the U.S. led the NATO assault on Libya in 2011. Both of these regime-change
wars have devastated the countries they ostensibly were out to help and left
both countries divided and embroiled in violent conflict to this day.
North
Korea in Historic Context
Understanding
the history of nuclear weapons, and the establishment of a world of
nuclear-haves and nuclear-have-nots, partially helps to explain why North Korea
sought these horribly destructive weapons, if for no other purpose than a
deterrent to superpower aggression.
It
also might help to recall that the Korean War—fought between 1950-53—resulted
in a massive loss of life. Estimates are that as many as three million North
Koreans, or 20 percent of their population, lost their lives. The U.S. engaged
in a nearly unbelievable bombing campaign that included the use of more than
half a million tons of bombs as well as napalm. As Air Force General Curtis
LeMay, head of the strategic air command during the Korean War, put it, “We
went over there and fought the war and eventually burned down every town in
North Korea.”
No
North Korean family was unscathed and this helps explain their animosity
towards and fear of the United States. It also helps to understand why they
find the huge U.S.-South Korean war games right on their doorstep as
threatening; it is always possible that, under the pretense of an exercise,
their adversaries could launch a surprise attack.
Trump
on Korea
Donald
Trump’s foreign policy in general has been erratic at best, and, in many cases
very destructive. He has pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accord and
the Iran Nuclear Agreement, two important steps forward undertaken under
President Obama. And, in moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, he has enflamed
the Israel-Palestine conflict. He has insulted foreign leaders, including major
U.S. allies, while heaping high praise on brutal despots. He’s continued and
expanded existing wars and threatened new ones. And it seems like he sees one
of his main jobs on the world stage as being an arms salesman, hawking the
wares of the Military-Industrial Complex hither and yon.
Perhaps
the most disconcerting moments of his presidency came in his war of words with
North Korea in 2017. No one can forget his threat that the North Koreans “will
be met with fire and the fury like the world has never seen,” or his taunting dismissal of Kim Jong Un as “little rocket man” and “a sick puppy.” He
not only threatened to unleash a nuclear attack that would “totally destroy North
Korea,” in an adolescent outburst he stated “I too have a Nuclear Button, but
it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”
Measured
against the pushing-to-the-brink-of-nuclear-war position we were in in 2017,
Trump’s current diplomacy with North Korea is a big improvement. Even if the
results of their summit were more photo-op than substance, it is far better to
be sitting down and talking, than it is to be threatening what should be
unthinkable, the launching a nuclear war.
The
Joint Statement signed at the end of the summit is quite vague. It includes a
pledge that the “DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the
Korean Peninsula,” but there is no explanation as to what “complete denuclearization”
means, on what timeline it would be attained, how this would be verified, etc.
There is also no indication whether or not “complete denuclearization” includes
the removal of nuclear-armed U.S. military forces from South Korea or the
waters surrounding Korea. As such, this is pretty hollow rhetoric. But hollow
rhetoric is an improvement over bellicose rhetoric.
Trump
has also come in for significant criticism for “giving without getting.” It is
noted that he agreed to cancel U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises with
no corresponding concession by the North Koreans. In point of fact, these
exercises, or war games, should never have been held in the first place. As
Trump noted, they are “provocative.” Mobilizing tens of thousands of troops, on
land, in the air and on the sea and staging mock invasions close to the border
of another country is clearly unacceptable, and, due to the ambiguous nature of
the mobilization could easily be suspected of providing cover for an actual
military assault. Imagine how the U.S. would have reacted during the Cold War
if Cuba and the Soviet Union held similar exercises off the coast of Florida.
What
Do the Korean People Want?
While
it is hard to know what the people of North Korea want, as it is not an open
society, we know from multiple polls that the overwhelming majority of South
Koreans want an end to the tensions, a peace treaty ending the Korean War,
mutual recognition and steps toward disarmament. In fact, a recent poll found
that 88.4 percent of South Koreans support the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration, which calls for peace
between the two Koreas and steps toward disarmament. Their wishes seem to
dovetail with those of many in the Korean diaspora, which were laid out in a pre-summit
Statement of Unity by Korean Americans and Allies.
Will
North Korea disarm? Time will tell. But it is, of course, not just up to the
North Korean leadership. A lot depends upon how they perceive the intentions of
the United States. It would clearly be more likely that they would make moves
in this direction if they saw a de-escalation of tensions and moves toward
making peace. On the other hand, seeing the U.S. reject other agreements,
including the Iran Nuclear Agreement and the Paris Accord, does not help. If
Donald Trump really wants a Nobel Peace Prize, he will clearly have to do more
than just have one meeting gushing praise on an autocratic leader. Rather, the
U.S. will have to do its part to create an atmosphere of mutual trust.
And
liberals and those on the Left, while standing firm against Trump’s overall
agenda, need to recognize that, just as a stopped clock tells the right time a
couple of times a day, so, too, can some of Trump’s actions be worthy of
saluting. Bernie Sanders gets this, and in a prepared statement, while noting
it was “very light on substance,” he declared the Singapore meeting “a positive
step in de-escalating tensions between our countries, addressing the threat of
North Korea’s nuclear weapons and moving toward a more peaceful future.” He further stated, “Congress has a key role to
play in making sure this is a meaningful process, not just a series of photo
ops.” While tentative, we agree, and urge others to support steps to peace.
